MyDD :: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43

SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43

by thezzyzx, Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:19:50 PM EST

Time to flip another state on the map. MO is now polling for Obama. That's 311 electoral votes.

Crosstabs aren't too interesting. McCain wins with men, loses with women. Whites only have a 46/40 McCain lead. If that holds, November will be very nice. As always, Edwards seems to be the favorite VP nominee.

I figured this is good news on the day that Obama clinches.

There were 4 other SUSA polls but none of them are flips, MA Obama +5 despite only getting 61% of Democratic votes, WA Obama + 16, OR Obama + 10, MN Obama + 5. What sucks about those is that it means it's not likely there will be another Seattle rally.

Tags: General election polling (all tags)

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Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (2.00 / 2)

Told ya!

by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:20:36 PM EST

Oh Noes (2.00 / 1)

This is horrible, only Hillary can bring us victory in Missouri.

Rubs eyes reads diary again, kick ass. I can't wait to read Nate Silver on this...

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:22:32 PM EST

Re: Oh Noes (2.00 / 1)

Well in her defense, I think she would have a good shot at Missouri too.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:25:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She would (none / 0)

I am mocking the electibility arguments people here make.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (none / 0)

What is it with these Massachusetts numbers? Why does McCain keep doing so well there? Do we actually really have to defend MA in November? I hope this, like the other polls showing this to be a close race, are a HUGE outlier.

"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."

by VAAlex on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:26:08 PM EST

Obama may be underperforming (2.00 / 1)

as MA voters are tying him to Deval patrick who is unpopular, also MA is a strong Clinton state and if her supporters aren't getting on board then that would influence polls.

Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!

by Student Guy on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My own experience (none / 0)

is Massachusetts has a surprisingly strong Republican youth population. Obviously not strong enough for a Republican to win there, but probably bigger than the states surrounding it.

The youth vote went to Clinton there. I think Massachusetts will fall somewhere in the neighborhood of 58%-42%. Perhaps the 2004 numbers were inflated because of Kerry's home field advantage.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:34:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (none / 0)

Rasmussen has him up double digits in Massachusetts. Obama's lead in SurveyUSA's poll is still outside of the margin of error.

Does anyone really believe Obama has a larger lead in Virginia and Ohio over McCain than he has over McCain in Massachusetts? We've seen some weird results from SurveyUSA these last couple of weeks but I don't think anyone is complaining as he's up to around 300 electoral college votes, even after losing Michigan.

by Blazers Edge on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 04:25:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (2.00 / 1)

Margin of error people. Come on. This is going to be a battleground state. At least I feel confident he has a chance in MO. Go Obama.

by mashews on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:27:44 PM EST

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (none / 0)

Well, it's just one poll but still awesome to see. I had sorta lost hope in Missouri. Something just told me that Rev. Wright would hurt him too much there. In fact, I've been thinking that VA is more likely than Missouri. I'll take both, though.

by DPW on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:28:22 PM EST

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (none / 0)

I'm a Barack supporter, but I suspect this MO poll is a bit of an outlier. Notice that the split in Dems vs. Repubs is 44 to 28 (I hope I got that right). I can't imagine that's really right.

Regardless, to me, MO is a second tier battleground for Barack with FL and VA. Tier 1 is keep Kerry states (minus NH perhaps) and win CO, IA, and NM. Tier 1 gets to 269 - 269 which will get the GE win with the tiebreakers in the House. Add OH as a better state than the tier 2 states, but worse than Tier 1.

IMO, he won't need MO to win the GE, though it would certainly be nice.

I have no concerns about NY and MA going for McCain, so the fact they are closer than previous polls is not important right now.

by sasatlanta on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:30:04 PM EST

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (2.00 / 1)

It might be an outlier, but it's just good to see for today. We have 5 months to worry about reality; it's just good on this day to have Obama have a solid lead.

But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

by thezzyzx on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 03:34:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: SUSA MO - Obama 45/McCain 43 (none / 0)

Yes it is!

by sasatlanta on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 05:54:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Damn (2.00 / 1)

I liked that nice round 300 victory, now we have to add more, damn.