http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?Rele aseID=1192&What=&strArea=;&s trTime=0
In a turnaround from some recent polls showing a much closer race, a poll released today by Qunnipiac opens some daylight for Obama as it shows him with a strong 9 point lead nationally. Obama's lead is built on his strong support from young people, Afro-Americans and women as Quinnipiac reports below:
With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.
Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.
But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.
The Democrat gets 44 percent to the Republican's 47 percent in red states, which went Republican by more than 5 percent in 2004, and leads 50 - 39 percent in purple or swing states.
"Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is solid - but it's not monolithic," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"His support in the black community is about as close to unanimous as you can get. Politicians say that the only uncertainty will be turnout. Sen. John McCain leads among white voters.
"As is usually the case, the outcome probably will be decided in the middle, among the independent voters, who are evenly split at this point."
"About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline - so far, anyway - to come home to their party."
By a 55 - 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability.
A total of 88 percent of American voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" having a black President, but 9 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." And 86 percent say Obama's race won't affect their vote.
A total of 64 percent of voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 years old, while 34 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." Because of his age, 20 percent say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it won't make a difference.
The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care.
Obama leads McCain 53 - 39 percent among those who list the economy, 65 - 27 percent among those who cite the war and 67 - 27 percent among those worried about health care.
"We note with a grain of salt that voters tell us they're not prejudiced against Obama because of race, or that only 20 percent are worried about McCain's age," Carroll said.
Democrats say 56 - 33 percent that Obama should pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But independent voters reject the idea 50 - 35 percent and voters overall reject it 49 - 36 percent.
Bush and Iraq
Likely voters nationwide disapprove 67 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 59 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
But by a 51 - 43 percent margin, voters support McCain's plan to keep U.S. troops in Iraq without a fixed withdrawal timetable, rather than Obama's plan to begin an immediate withdrawal with an 18-month timetable.
"The overall numbers show a big partisan split on the war in Iraq. Almost three-fourths of Republicans think it was the right thing to do. Democratic denunciation is overwhelming," Carroll said. "And by the slimmest of majorities, voters back McCain's plan to keep troops in Iraq as long as it takes."
From July 8 -13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,725 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
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